February 16, 2011

IUPUI And The Summit League Tournament: Post-Week 7

With the Summit League Conference Tournament quickly approaching, I am often fielding the question of "where will we end up?" So, here we are! This is a pre-eighth week look at IUPUI's possible seeding and match ups.

Record: 16-11 (10-4)
Games Behind: 3.0
Current Seed: #2
Current Matchup: Quarterfinal v Southern Utah


Possible Outcomes

Best Case

Record: 14-4
Seed: T-1, Lose tie breaker to Oakland (OAK 2-0 v #3 ORU, IUPUI 1-1 v #3 ORU), so #2
Tournament Path Starts... Quarterfinals v #7 North Dakota State

In this scenario, IUPUI goes unblemished in their final four games, while Oakland finishes 0-4 in the same span. Because the teams split 1-1 in the regular season, the next place to look would be record against the best ranked opponent, assuming of course it's Oral Roberts. IUPUI would have gone 1-1, losing at home and winning on the road, but Oakland has already defeated the Golden Eagles twice. Oakland looks far less scary in this supposed case, same with Oral Roberts.

Worst Case

Record: 10-8
Seed: T-6, Win tie breaker over North Dakota State (IUPUI 2-0 v NDST), so #6
Tournament Path Starts... Quarterfinals v #3 IPFW

This isn't only frightening because IUPUI would fall from good to awful, but they'd be going down to two of the three worst teams in the League, including Centenary. This is a much less likely scenario than any, but a breakdown of this magnitude would spell disaster for the Jaguars.

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Most Likely

Record: 13-5
Seed: T-2, Loses tie breaker to ORU (IUPUI 0-2 v ORU) so #3
Tournament Path Starts... Quarterfinals v #6 UMKC

While IUPUI has been playing well, they always struggle in Tulsa and I just can't see them going in and winning. That being said, they'll take the other three games while building confidence and gathering 'intel' about themselves against Oral Roberts. It's awfully hard to beat a team three times in one season, and these two teams would have a date in the semifinal round.


IUPUI could end up in a three way tie with Oral Roberts and IPFW IF...
*IUPUI goes 3-1, losing to Oral Roberts.
*ORU wins out.
*IPFW wins out.
Standard procedure is head-to-head, but IUPUI swept IPFW who swept ORU who would have swept IUPUI. With that kind of odd situation, the next place to look is performance against the top team in the league that IS NOT one of the teams vying for a spot. That team is #1 Oakland, who cannot lose to IPFW or ORU (2-0 against both), but lost once to IUPUI. This situation would produce an Oral Roberts #3 seed (2-0 vs the #2 seed), and IPFW as #4.

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